�n November 2006, MCI’s cover featured an
illustration of an old fashioned television
set sitting in a dustbin. The implication
was obvious. We were just about to enter
a new phase in multimedia entertainment.
Operators were launching mobile TV services
on a range of platforms and handsets. Some
serious questions remained, of course, but
mobile TV was no longer a question of if or
when. It was a reality.
As we approach the final quarter of 2007,
however, the future of mobile TV is, if anything,
more uncertain. As individual carriers
in different markets adopt their preferred
technologies, the list of ‘standard’ broadcast
solutions seems to be growing at the same
rate as new services are launched.
It’s getting progressively more difficult to
keep track of the network rollouts, business
models and handsets for a service that so far
has generated what could be politely referred
to as a niche following.
“I’ve noticed with conferences, two years
ago there was a big hoo-ha around mobile
TV and it has died down now. Which is not a
bad thing,” comments Eden Zoller, principal
analyst Ovum. “I think what’s happening is
a lot of the service providers, operators or
other parties are realising that it is a harder
proposition than they thought at first.”
In Europe, during the summer, the EC
finally backed DVB-H for mobile TV rather
than remaining technology neutral. In Japan
and South Korea, service uptake on existing
ISDB-T, and T-DMB and S-DMB, is continuing
to build, albeit slowly. In the US, Verizon
and AT&T have both selected Qualcomm’s
MediaFLO solution, which launched in March
and Verizon has already gone live.
Meanwhile, BT Movio’s, and therefore Virgin
Mobile’s, DAB solution in the UK folded
due to poor uptake less than one year after
launch, along with Crown Castle’s DVB-H
solution in the US.
On Europe, David McQueen, principal
analyst Informa Telecoms & Media says: “It
is possible to see the logic of support for a
single mobile TV standard for Europe. GSM
as a de facto standard allowed economies
of scale in the industry, and made roaming
easier. In theory, therefore, choosing DVB-
H, is like getting the whole of Europe to go
down the GSM route. Also, you are backing
the frontrunner.”
But backing a frontrunner that won’t arrive
in some markets until 2012 seems a trifle
premature; at least, so says ROK TV CEO, Bruce
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Renny: “You have got to look at when this service
is going to be available in the UK. I can tell you,
2012 at the earliest when the last of the analogues
is switched off. Now 2012 in the mobile
environment is a lifetime away. I mean, a month
is a long time in the mobile entertainment space,
quite apart from five or six years.”
A recent report from Dutch analyst house
Telecompaper revealed that, although three
operators (KPN, Vodafone and Orange) in the
Netherlands offer mobile TV, only 1.4 per
cent of subscribers has watched TV using a
cellphone. In fact, from a list of 22 unique data
services, mobile TV was the least popular.
M:Metrics, meanwhile, found that the
number of subscribers that watched any commercial
programmed mobile TV and/or video,
once or more, in a month in France, Germany,
Spain, Italy and the UK combined, in the three
months ending July 2007, was 2,386,795. It
looks like a fair size number, but in reality
it’s only 1.12 per cent of subscribers.
In a recent strategic report Mobile TV:
Broadcast Network Rollouts, Business Models
and Handsets, Informa Telecoms & Media
predicts the market for broadcast mobile TV
devices grew from 0.81 million in 2005 to just
over four million in 2006. These devices are
expected to find their way into 12.3 per cent
of new handset sales by 2012, representing an
expected market of 178 million phones.
The ITM report states that an inflection
point is expected to occur in 2009 as network
rollout and device availability allow for the
market to reach some level of critical mass.
Informa goes on to predict that there will
be 335.6 million broadcast mobile TV users
worldwide by 2012, up from a mere 12.1 million
expected in 2007, with an inflection point
expected in 2009-2010.
So, mobile TV is niche now, but commentators
believe it has substantial potential owing
to the mass market adoption of both mobile
services and TV. Predicting the dynamics of
the business model and market acceptance is
much more difficult. Indeed, one of the areas
most discussed is the role of the mobile operators
in the value chain. According to Informa,
a number of possible scenarios emerge that
could enhance or dilute mobile operator
strengths in the mobile TV value chain.
First, the ‘discrete’ business model, where
the MNO chooses to provide TV services only
over its own cellular networks, or via network
optimised solutions, with no other broadcast
network interaction. Second, the ‘principal’
business model, where the MNO is lead player »
MOBILE TV FEATURE
Mobile TV is niche now, but
commentators believe it
has substantial potential
owing to the mass market
adoption of both mobile
services and TV. Predicting
the dynamics of the
business model and market
acceptance is much more
difficult
33
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