PICTURE: GETTY IMAGES THE INSIGHT
GOOD TIMES
WILL RETURN…
…but when? There is broad agreement the country is in recession, but
quite how badly it will aff ect the travel industry and for how long is less
certain. Ian Taylor looks at the latest forecasts
The economy dominated
World Travel Market in a way
the organisers cannot have
imagined when arranging a
programme with World
Responsible Tourism Day at
its heart.
Everyone from WTM chairwoman
Fiona Jeffery to
United Nations World
Tourism Organization secretary-general
Francesco Frangialli
insisted the developing
recession should not distract
from demands to make the industry
more sustainable. But
there was no denying concern
about the downturn.
Frangialli told a tourism
ministers’ summit: “Tourism
is resilient, but there is a stage
of deterioration beyond which
tourism will suffer.”
However, he argued: “There
will be no tourism tsunami.
We are worried, but not in a
panic. Tourism fl ows from
emerging countries are
increasing and the need to
travel and the desire for leisure
are engrained.”
That was not the view of
Professor Peter Keller, an
adviser to the UNWTO and
director of tourism at the
University of Lausanne. He
predicted “a slow downturn
and a slow recovery”, and
warned: “It is unlikely emerg-
22 | Travel Weekly | November 21 2008
“There will be no
tourism tsunami.
We are worried,
but not in a panic”
ing economies will be the driver
of the world economy.”
On a world scale, the
UNWTO does not foresee
contraction for the industry
next year. Instead, it predicts
growth of 0-2% in international
tourists against long-term
average annual growth of
4.2%. However, it foresees a
hard time for the UK – its
World Tourism Barometer
survey of the latest fi gures
suggests: “Inhabitants of
the UK are in for a very
tough 2009.”
That forecast was confi rmed
by the Bank of England last
week when it predicted a
2% decline in the UK economy
in 2009.
Economists broadly agree
there will be a delay before
developments in the wider
economy feed through to
travel. Deutsche Bank chief
economist Dr Norbert Walter
suggested: “The travel industry
lags behind the general
economic cycle by six months
to a year, although some
sectors – for example, the
events industry – will be
suffering now.”
Yet UK tourism minister
Barbara Follett revealed a
downturn in tourism was
already responsible for half the
shrinkage in the UK economy
in the three months to September,
when the country suffered
a 0.5% fall.
Follett told the ministers’
summit: “Half the contraction
came from hospitality and
tourism.” A large part of that
was due to sharp falls in visitors
from North America,
down 15%, and Japan – down
25% – this summer.
UNWTO TOURISM BAROMETER
The United Nations World
Tourism Organization paints
a deteriorating picture while
forecasting global growth
in travel between zero and
2% in 2009.
The UNWTO World
Tourism Barometer reports:
“International tourism
demand cooled signifi cantly
over May to August and
tourism results have rapidly
deteriorated. Business
retrenchment will be quickly
felt in consumer markets.
“Air travel will be
adversely aff ected. Sharp
fl uctuations in exchange
rates are likely to result in a
change in travel patterns.
Business tourism is at risk of
slowing down.”
However, it predicts “a
The UK inbound industry
will hope those markets
rebound on the back of the fall
in the pound, making Britain a
cheaper destination. But both
the US and Japan are in recession
– while the falling pound
poses a major concern to
the UK outbound market,
especially to the US and eurozone
countries.
rapid recovery as soon as the
economic outlook improves”.
Other forecasts are less
rosy. The World Travel and
Tourism Council predicts a
1% contraction in world
tourist traffi c in 2009, after in
August predicting a 2% rise
in traffi c next year. The
WTTC suggests growth will
return in 2010, but numbers
will only increase by 1% –
meaning a return to where
we are now.
In Europe the WTTC
foresees a 2% decline in
travel numbers in 2009.
German travel forecast
group IPK International also
forecasts a 1% contraction in
the industry next year and
suggests “the crisis” will last
12-18 months.
www.travelweekly.co.uk
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