FEATURE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK
2008 will see concerted efforts from
domestic and overseas players to take advantage
of these opportunities. The large
Western players like Vodafone, Telefonica
and Orange have built substantial portfolios
in recent years in a bid to establish global
dominance. But they are now facing rivalry
from operators headquartered in other parts
of the world, which have been building their
own empires.
In early 2005, Sunil Bharti Mittal, chairman
of Indian carrier Bharti Tele-Ventures told
MCI of his aim to one day begin international
expansion—and not just in emerging markets.
Operators in these markets have expertise in
managing costs and functioning on low ARPU,
skills which could be usefully transplanted
to developed markets where revenues are
on the wane.
2008 could be the year that the emerging
market players begin to chase their international
ambitions, increasing the competitive
tension among the exclusive club peopled by
the large global players. “I think [the emerging
market players] will be ready from 2008 onwards,”
says Sean Collins. “We’ve already seen
China Mobile having a good look at Millicom.
China Mobile is the fourth largest company
in the world by market capitalisation. And
there comes a point where they simply have
to use their economic muscle to go beyond
their own national boundaries.”
And China Mobile isn’t the only likely
player to watch, says Collins. “I look at the
steel industry, where I see names like Tata
Steel acquiring Corus, and Mittal becoming
the world’s biggest steel manufacturer. I ask
myself how long it will be before Bharti or
Reliance or Tata do much the same thing in
making big acquisitions to establish a big
footprint on the global telecoms scene.”
As a range of carriers do battle to buy into
the world’s remaining growth opportunities,
Mobile operator outlook 2008
Eastern
Europe
28
Latin America
North America
Middle
East
4%
3%
16%
13%
21%
Asia Pacific
24%
Western
Europe
18%
Africa
1. What region are you based in? 2. Do you expect mobile ARPU
in your region in 2008 to:
Remain
at 2006
levels
Decrease
0-5%
12%
20%
Global Mobile subscriptions and revenues 2007 - 2008
Subscriptions (million) 2007 2008
Global 3,355.61 3,810.33
Asia Pacific 1,427.31 1,677.93
Western Europe 461.31 483.35
Eastern Europe 398.90 437.68
Latin America 369.71 418.63
Africa 264.81 316.36
North America 273.40 291.48
Middle East 160.17 184.89
Total revenues (US$m) 2007 2008
Global 740,552.96 803,533.92
Asia Pacific 235,804.27 259,884.26
Western Europe 189,313.05 197,953.57
North America 156,220.96 164,937.35
Latin America 46,489.20 52,402.58
Eastern Europe 45,121.00 49,321.52
Africa 36,804.92 43,860.50
Middle East 30,769.55 35,174.14
partnerships and minority stakes could prove
to be popular options.
In high growth markets, competition
also exists between technologies, and
2008 will see proponents of WiMAX push
harder for a share of the business. 2007
was a year of mixed experience for the
WiMAX community (see p33) and 2008
will be pivotal if the technology is to earn
itself a position on the world stage. With
many predicting that WiMAX is best suited
to providing access for users of laptops
and other portable computing devices, the
technology faces a battle for a share of the
mobile market.
Growth in mobile subscriptions has been
accelerating and, having broken through
the three billion barrier in 2007, where will
30%
Increase
6-10%
Decrease
6-10%
5%
33%
Increase
0-5%
Increase more
than 20%
Increase 16-20%
5% 7%
15%
Increase
11-15%
39%
Increase
6-10%
3. Do you think the price of basic
voice services in 2008 will:
34%
Increase
0-5%
the market be at the end of 2008? Informa
predicts that we will be approaching the
four billion subscriber milestone by the close
of next year, with 3.81 billion subscribers.
Nokia, meanwhile, anticipates that the four
billion barrier will have been broken by
January 2009.
We are in sector-defining times at the
moment, and 2008 will be a year in which
shakeouts continue and the shape of the
industry of the next decade becomes a good
deal clearer. �
For more information on the Mobile Industry
Outlook 2008, and other Informa Telecoms
& Media products, please visit www.
informatm.com or email telecoms.enquiries@
informa.com
Mobile Communications International | First for news, best for business
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
Source: Informa Telecoms & Media
45% 16%
Increase
over the next
two years Remain stable
over the next
two years
4. Do you expect your Capex as a
% of turnover to:
Decrease over the
next two years
39%
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